Dubai: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports a strong increase in passenger demand for May 2024 compared to May 2023. Global demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), rose by 10.7%.
This translates to airlines filling a record high of 83.4% of their seats in May 2024. This positive trend is expected to continue, with early peak-season ticket sales showing a nearly 6% increase.
However, IATA Director General Willie Walsh warns that air navigation service providers (ANSPs) could disrupt this smooth travel experience. With significant air traffic control delays already plaguing Europe (5.2 million minutes in May) and the US (32,000 delays over Memorial Day weekend), airlines are urging ANSPs to improve efficiency to avoid disruptions during the busy northern summer season.
Strong growth in international travel
International travel saw the most significant growth, with a 14.6% increase in demand compared to May 2023. This is accompanied by a capacity increase of 14.1% and a load factor improvement of 82.8%.
Asia-Pacific airlines are leading the pack, with a staggering 27.0% year-on-year increase in demand, driven by strong performances on routes to the Middle East.
Here's a closer look at how other regions performed:
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Europe: 11.7% increase in demand, with capacity increasing 11.3% and load factor reaching 84.7%.
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Middle East: 9.7% increase in demand, with capacity increasing to 9.0% and load factor rising to 80.7%.
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Notably, Asian routes to the Middle East are particularly strong, 32% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
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The Europe-Middle East route is also showing a positive trend, with a two-year increase in April-May RPKs, reversing a historical decline.
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Latin America: 15.9% increase in demand, with capacity climbing 14.3%. The load factor rose to 85.1%, the highest among all regions.
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Africa: 14.1% increase in demand, with capacity up 8.2%. The load factor rose to 72.3%, representing the fastest increase among all regions, though Africa still has the lowest load factor overall.
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North America: 8.1% increase in demand, with capacity increasing 9.7%. However, the load factor fell to 84.0%.
Domestic travel on the rise
Domestic travel also increased, but at a slower pace of 4.7% compared to May 2023. China's domestic market saw a surge in line with the post-Labor Day holidays, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in demand. Conversely, Japan's domestic market experienced a slight decline of -1.8%, possibly reflecting low business and consumer confidence.
A detailed look at domestic markets
Breakdown of how some major domestic markets performed in May 2024:
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Australia: 4.4% increase in demand, with capacity increasing by 1.4% and load factor reaching 79.1%.
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Brazil: 0.6% increase in demand, with capacity climbing 14.3% and load factor reaching 79.4%.
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China P.R.: 7.6% increase in demand (despite a -4.8% decrease in capacity), with load factor reaching 82.3%.
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India: 4.6% increase in demand, with capacity increasing 8.2% and load factor reaching 88.6%.
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Japan: -1.8% decrease in demand, with capacity decreasing by -0.4% and load factor reaching 72.3%.This is the only domestic market to see a decline.
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Domestic US: 6.0% increase in demand, with capacity increasing by 5.3% and load factor reaching 86.7%.
Note: The data provided for these six domestic passenger markets represents approximately 31.4% of global total RPKs and 78.8% of total domestic RPKs.
Looking ahead: Uncertainties remain
While the air travel industry enjoys a positive current, challenges persist. ANSPs need to address potential bottlenecks to ensure smooth operations during the peak season. Additionally, the long-term effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on travel patterns remain unclear.